Minimizing the Covid-19 train wreck
By Risk.Report founder Leanne Bicknell
Join me in thanking our politicians and bureaucrats for not behaving like politicians and bureaucrats. We are living in a shenanigans free zone.
The bipartisan approach to the current situation has shown that statespersons do in fact exist. It is to their credit that our Australian leaders and experts have come together to seek creative solutions to take us through the challenges associated with Covid-19 and prepare for recovery.
Most people understand the massive debt load the current fight is amassing. However, we must all be extremely grateful the money is for funding the defence of our borders from an invisible enemy and not for financing a munitions cache.
Other countries are experiencing concurrent, multiple, highspeed, train wrecks from every angle. Australia, although still significantly impacted, has been spared some of the trauma so far.
Risk.Report believe no matter the course the various countries take, the financial and societal debt and impact on GDP is inescapable. I say this as I have done some very simple maths on which to back my train of thought – all things being equal. The table below is to highlight why we should be grateful.
A number of options have been discussed widely by various governments, individually and in combination:
1) <1% transfer with associated low mortality – requires isolation from the rest of the world and social distancing into the foreseeable future.
2) Flattening the curve to allow the medical systems to prepare and then cope. The expectation is for a significant deathrate over an extended period.
3) Laissez-faire where the curve would resemble the Spanish Flu spike of 1918-1920.
4) Gaining Herd Immunity of 60-90%.
5) The virus is self-limiting and its potency fades naturally over time (think SARS).
|Country, Region||Population approx.||Deaths attributed to Covid 19 as at 15/4/2020 *||Herd immunity 60% and 3.4% death rate**|
|Italy, France, Spain, Germany, England||324,500,000||>70,500||6,619,800|
|Spanish Flu 1919||1,800,000,000||17,000,000 – 50,000,000||36,720,000|
Comparative analysis of populations in relation to Covid-19
*figures approx. and accepting few countries are using the same data sets ** WHO estimated death rate March 3, 2020
The figures above are definitely naïve; however, they do clearly show that aiming for <1% transfer is seriously cool, flattening the curve and Laissez-faire (both rely on Herd Immunity) are very scary, and Spanish Flu reached Herd Immunity over a 2 year period.
This debt has bought our beautiful country time to prepare until there is a surge in cases, a vaccine has been developed, adequate treatment has been discovered, there is a gradual movement toward Herd Immunity, or Covid-19 simply dies out.
If you need advice about running a business in a post-pandemic world, contact Risk.report founder Leanne Bicknell for an obligation-free consultation.
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